(PS4-31) Survival Analysis of Friend Networks, Commitment Constraint, and Relationship Breakups

Abstract Text: Prior research has shown that merged friend networks (i.e., more mutual friends than personal friends) promote relationship stability. Social pressure is also a factor in commitment constraint, the factors that keep distressed couples from breakup. Few studies have analyzed this effect longitudinally among nonmarried couples, and none have analyzed mutual friends as a moderator of commitment constraint and likelihood of breakup. This study sought to validate existing studies associating mutual friends with breakup likelihood and determine whether these networks moderate commitment constraint and its negative association with breakup. Participants in a nationally representative sample of unmarried people in opposite-sex relationships (N=1294, female=62.9%, mAge=25.06, mRel. length=4.2 years) completed questionnaires across six timepoints. Length of relationship, number of total friends, number of mutual friends, and commitment constraint were assessed at baseline, and participants were asked if they remained in their baseline relationship at each timepoint. Survival analyses were used to determine odds and propensity of breakup, and to determine whether friend network makeup moderated the connection between commitment constraint and breakup. Of the 1,225 participants, 473 broke up with their baseline partner by the final timepoint (38.6%). Controlling for total friends, number of mutual friends was a significant predictor of breakup likelihood (B = -.21, p = <.001. Number of total friends when controlling for mutual friends was also a significant predictor of breakup (B=.07, p = <.001), in the opposite direction of mutual friends. These results held when controlling for gender. When considering friend network as a moderator of commitment constraint, constraint remained a significant predictor of breakup (B = -.68, p= <.001), but there was no significant interaction with either number of mutual friends or nonmutual friends. These results show friend networks predict breakup likelihood, with mutual friends predicting greater stability and nonmutual friends predicting breakup. Additionally, the lack of interaction between number of friends and commitment constraint likely means that friends don’t have an aggregate effect on reducing or amplifying the factors that keep people from leaving relationships.