4 - (IOP 40) Individual Differences in the Impact of Future Consequences on Decision-making

1. Background
Anticipating and responding to the potential future consequences of our behavior plays a critical role in adaptive decision-making and overall functioning. However, some individuals exhibit insensitivity to future consequences (IFC) and tend to prioritize immediate emotional relief over long-term benefits. Traditional IFC measures focus on monetary outcomes, limiting ecological validity. This research introduces the Scenario Task (ST), an experimental task that uses real-life scenarios to assess approach-avoidance decisions while manipulating the presence vs. absence of long-term consequences. Study 1 validates the ST and explores mediators, while Study 2 examines moderators.

2. Study 1
Adults (N = 208, 80% women, mean age = 56.6) were recruited via Research Match and participated via Qualtrics. Participants read 30 scenarios, each randomly presented as experimental (long-term consequences included) or control (long-term consequences excluded) versions, and rated the likelihood of approach behavior, as well as emotional arousal, negativity, positivity, vividness, and personal relatability.

Out of the 30 scenarios, 14 were selected based on manipulation effectiveness, demographic bias, and internal consistency. There was a significant main effect of Condition on decision-making (β = 0.67, t(2904) = 13.02, p < .001), suggesting more approach decisions when long-term consequences were presented. Mediation analyses found significant indirect effects for vividness, 0.017 (p < .001), arousal, −0.015 (p < .001), and positivity, 0.021 (p = .008), indicating that vividness and positivity partially mediated the effect, while arousal acted as a suppressor.

3. Study 2
Participants (N = 504, 74% women, mean age = 53.1 years) were recruited through Research Match and participated via Qualtrics. They were randomly assigned to either the experimental or control condition of the ST. Participants read 14 everyday scenarios and made approach-avoidance decisions. They also completed self-report measures of symptoms of depression and anxiety, anhedonia, non-perseverance, non-planfulness, optimism, and behavioral activation.

A manipulation check revealed significantly higher approach decisions in the experimental (M = 5.64, SD = 0.69) compared to the control condition (M = 4.96, SD = 0.75), t(502) = 10.483, p < .001. Linear regression models tested the interaction between Condition and each variable. Significant moderators included generalized anxiety (b = -0.029, p = .027), behavioral activation (b = 0.015, p = .009), and non-perseverance (b = -0.023, p = .025), suggesting that insensitivity to future consequences is associated with greater anxious symptomatology and non-perseverance and lower levels of behavioral activation.

4. Conclusions
The Scenario Task offers a novel, ecologically valid approach to understanding IFC beyond monetary outcomes. Study 1 validated the task and identified mediators like vividness and positivity, while Study 2 highlighted moderators such as anxiety and behavioral activation. Together, these studies advance the theoretical understanding of IFC and suggest clinical applications for decreasing avoidance and improving future-oriented decision-making.